【Zhongke Zhonghuan】Professor Li Jianlin from North China University of Technology: Analysis of Investment Hotspots and Technological Trends in Energy Storage during the 14th Five Year Plan Period
Release Date:2020-12-02 Source: View count:474
The "2020 Energy Storage Security International Summit Forum" was guided by Hefei Science and Technology Bureau and the Management Committee of Hefei High tech Industrial Development Zone, hosted by the State Key Laboratory of Fire Science of the University of Science and Technology of China and Anhui Zhongke Zhonghuan Defence Equipment Technology Co., Ltd., and co organized by Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co., Ltd. and Hangzhou Gaote Electronic Equipment Co., Ltd. At the meeting, Professor Li Jianlin of North China University of Technology delivered a speech with the title "Analysis of the 14th Five Year Plan" Energy Storage Investment Hotspots and Technology Trends, respectively from four aspects of China's energy storage development status, major demonstration projects, ten investment hotspots and suggestions.
01 Current Status of Energy Storage Development in China
On January 17, 2020, the Ministry of Education, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Main Construction Content of Discipline Development in Energy Storage Technology (2020-2024)" (Jiao Gao Han [2020] No. 1), which requires accelerating the cultivation of "high-precision and cutting-edge" talents in the energy storage field in universities with conditions such as Beijing Tianjin Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta, and enhancing the core technology research and independent innovation capabilities necessary for the energy storage industry. At the same time, the Ministry of Education also requires universities to establish energy storage disciplines, such as Xi'an Jiaotong University and North China Electric Power University, both of which have established energy storage majors. Especially in recent years, policies from various provinces have emerged one after another, with a new policy being introduced almost every two weeks, and more than 50 supporting policies issued by governments at all levels. There are also more than 20 policies issued by five ministries including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
There are hundreds of megawatt level energy storage projects in Jiangsu, Henan, Hunan, Qinghai, and Zhejiang. As of now, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage is about 1.7GW, and the scale of energy storage installation is gradually increasing, from the initial hundreds of kilowatts to the later ten megawatts, and even GW level, with the scale level becoming larger and larger. The application of emerging technologies such as blockchain and big data in shared energy storage will further promote the explosive growth of energy storage and accelerate the arrival of the first year of energy storage explosion.
By 2025, when the cost of energy storage drops to 1500 yuan/KWH, most regions in China will achieve parity in user side energy storage. The market size is about 650 billion yuan, and it can reach a market value of tens of thousands by 2030.
02 Energy Storage Major Demonstration Project
For example, the National Wind and Solar Energy Storage and Transmission Demonstration Project, the Liaoning Woniushi Wind Farm Liquid Flow Battery Energy Storage Demonstration Power Station, the grid friendly new energy generation demonstration established in Jiuquan, Gansu, the 15MW photovoltaic storage power station in Golmud, Qinghai, and integrated demonstration projects in Xinjiang and Hebei have been in operation for five to ten years. For example, the flexible renovation of Jilin thermal power plant, the demonstration project of 100 megawatt level energy storage in Henan power grid, and the emergency supply of 5-megawatt regional power grid in Huairou, Beijing are all newly put into operation or designed for operation. Guizhou has 20 MW energy storage power stations to solve regional power grid problems. In short, whether it is new or old, it proves that energy storage can indeed provide some services to the power grid, and also gives us determination. Therefore, everyone should have firm confidence in energy storage.
03 Top 10 Investment Hotspots
The first one is frequency modulation. Due to its clear business model in conjunction with thermal power, coupled with the high safety and high rate of water-based batteries, it has a promising future.
The second is the integration of photovoltaic power stations. We have built a 50 MW photovoltaic power station and 15 MW of energy storage in Qinghai. As of now, large central enterprises have successively deployed solar energy storage power stations. This business model is relatively clear and requires strong government endorsement. In addition, fair and just transactions are conducted through blockchain technology.
The third one is subway, high-speed rail, and rail transit. Our country has developed subways and high-speed railways. When the subway enters the station, braking is required, and the braking energy is now consumed through resistors. In fact, it can be stored in energy storage units. Therefore, this high-power energy storage battery has great prospects in subways and high-speed railways.
In addition, there is shore power in the port. There is an energy storage project for shore power in Lianyungang, which can provide electricity supply to the port. Nowadays, many places use diesel engines for connection, which have high costs and pollution, and are not advocated by the government.
Hot topic five is energy storage systems for drilling. PetroChina and Sinopec actively adopt it, but there is a special working condition during the adoption process, where the power must not be cut off for more than ten minutes in a certain section. Conventional diesel engines are used for 24-hour operation during these ten minutes. Energy storage power stations are also very promising in such situations.
Hot spot six is the renovation of thermal power units below 300 megawatts, and China is suppressing thermal power units below 300 megawatts.
The seventh hot topic is intelligent battery swapping and electric heavy-duty trucks, which are also high energy consuming and costly.
The eighth one is electric tractors, because the country has clear policies to subsidize agriculture and encourage farmers to cultivate land and cultivate crops. However, the mainstream now is still diesel engines, which have short farming hours and long maintenance times. The prices of electric tractors and diesel engines are comparable. Using battery powered tractors and leasing batteries makes the field of charging diesel engines more promising.
The ninth hot topic is mobile energy storage vehicles, which can provide some good services to the market.
04 Suggestions
No matter how popular the previous hotspots are, safety is the top priority. We call on everyone to pay attention to fire protection, adopt multi-level protective measures, and carry out safety protection from multiple media and fire extinguishing mechanisms. Only by ensuring safety can energy storage develop healthily.
The "2020 Energy Storage Security International Summit Forum" was guided by Hefei Science and Technology Bureau and the Management Committee of Hefei High tech Industrial Development Zone, hosted by the State Key Laboratory of Fire Science of the University of Science and Technology of China and Anhui Zhongke Zhonghuan Defence Equipment Technology Co., Ltd., and co organized by Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co., Ltd. and Hangzhou Gaote Electronic Equipment Co., Ltd. At the meeting, Professor Li Jianlin of North China University of Technology delivered a speech with the title "Analysis of the 14th Five Year Plan" Energy Storage Investment Hotspots and Technology Trends, respectively from four aspects of China's energy storage development status, major demonstration projects, ten investment hotspots and suggestions.
01 Current Status of Energy Storage Development in China
On January 17, 2020, the Ministry of Education, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Main Construction Content of Discipline Development in Energy Storage Technology (2020-2024)" (Jiao Gao Han [2020] No. 1), which requires accelerating the cultivation of "high-precision and cutting-edge" talents in the energy storage field in universities with conditions such as Beijing Tianjin Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta, and enhancing the core technology research and independent innovation capabilities necessary for the energy storage industry. At the same time, the Ministry of Education also requires universities to establish energy storage disciplines, such as Xi'an Jiaotong University and North China Electric Power University, both of which have established energy storage majors. Especially in recent years, policies from various provinces have emerged one after another, with a new policy being introduced almost every two weeks, and more than 50 supporting policies issued by governments at all levels. There are also more than 20 policies issued by five ministries including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
There are hundreds of megawatt level energy storage projects in Jiangsu, Henan, Hunan, Qinghai, and Zhejiang. As of now, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage is about 1.7GW, and the scale of energy storage installation is gradually increasing, from the initial hundreds of kilowatts to the later ten megawatts, and even GW level, with the scale level becoming larger and larger. The application of emerging technologies such as blockchain and big data in shared energy storage will further promote the explosive growth of energy storage and accelerate the arrival of the first year of energy storage explosion.
By 2025, when the cost of energy storage drops to 1500 yuan/KWH, most regions in China will achieve parity in user side energy storage. The market size is about 650 billion yuan, and it can reach a market value of tens of thousands by 2030.
02 Energy Storage Major Demonstration Project
For example, the National Wind and Solar Energy Storage and Transmission Demonstration Project, the Liaoning Woniushi Wind Farm Liquid Flow Battery Energy Storage Demonstration Power Station, the grid friendly new energy generation demonstration established in Jiuquan, Gansu, the 15MW photovoltaic storage power station in Golmud, Qinghai, and integrated demonstration projects in Xinjiang and Hebei have been in operation for five to ten years. For example, the flexible renovation of Jilin thermal power plant, the demonstration project of 100 megawatt level energy storage in Henan power grid, and the emergency supply of 5-megawatt regional power grid in Huairou, Beijing are all newly put into operation or designed for operation. Guizhou has 20 MW energy storage power stations to solve regional power grid problems. In short, whether it is new or old, it proves that energy storage can indeed provide some services to the power grid, and also gives us determination. Therefore, everyone should have firm confidence in energy storage.
03 Top 10 Investment Hotspots
The first one is frequency modulation. Due to its clear business model in conjunction with thermal power, coupled with the high safety and high rate of water-based batteries, it has a promising future.
The second is the integration of photovoltaic power stations. We have built a 50 MW photovoltaic power station and 15 MW of energy storage in Qinghai. As of now, large central enterprises have successively deployed solar energy storage power stations. This business model is relatively clear and requires strong government endorsement. In addition, fair and just transactions are conducted through blockchain technology.
The third one is subway, high-speed rail, and rail transit. Our country has developed subways and high-speed railways. When the subway enters the station, braking is required, and the braking energy is now consumed through resistors. In fact, it can be stored in energy storage units. Therefore, this high-power energy storage battery has great prospects in subways and high-speed railways.
In addition, there is shore power in the port. There is an energy storage project for shore power in Lianyungang, which can provide electricity supply to the port. Nowadays, many places use diesel engines for connection, which have high costs and pollution, and are not advocated by the government.
Hot topic five is energy storage systems for drilling. PetroChina and Sinopec actively adopt it, but there is a special working condition during the adoption process, where the power must not be cut off for more than ten minutes in a certain section. Conventional diesel engines are used for 24-hour operation during these ten minutes. Energy storage power stations are also very promising in such situations.
Hot spot six is the renovation of thermal power units below 300 megawatts, and China is suppressing thermal power units below 300 megawatts.
The seventh hot topic is intelligent battery swapping and electric heavy-duty trucks, which are also high energy consuming and costly.
The eighth one is electric tractors, because the country has clear policies to subsidize agriculture and encourage farmers to cultivate land and cultivate crops. However, the mainstream now is still diesel engines, which have short farming hours and long maintenance times. The prices of electric tractors and diesel engines are comparable. Using battery powered tractors and leasing batteries makes the field of charging diesel engines more promising.
The ninth hot topic is mobile energy storage vehicles, which can provide some good services to the market.
04 Suggestions
No matter how popular the previous hotspots are, safety is the top priority. We call on everyone to pay attention to fire protection, adopt multi-level protective measures, and carry out safety protection from multiple media and fire extinguishing mechanisms. Only by ensuring safety can energy storage develop healthily.
